One of the buzzwords always echoing around the digital marketing industry is "multi-touch Attribution" or MTA. As marketing strategies and consumer behavior change, it's crucial to keep pace with changes in this area. In this post, we will explore the changing landscape of multi-touch Attribution and what you need to be aware of when utilizing it. MTA in the Marketing World MTA has become a staple in the marketing world, with many businesses exploring in-house versions of this model in addition to utilizing vendor offerings. The fundamental idea behind it is to assign credit for conversions to not one, but multiple touchpoints in the consumer journey. However, at further inspection, many teams discover that the effectiveness of multi-touch Attribution is no longer as robust as it once was. Data Scope Matters One of the critical aspects of multi-touch attribution is the scope of data it encompasses. In the past, you could collect comprehensive data from various platforms, including impressions, clicks, and conversions. This holistic view allowed for a clearer understanding of the entire consumer journey. However, the landscape has changed significantly. Now, the data scope is fragmented, and the ability to obtain a full consumer journey is becoming increasingly challenging. Each platform only provides insights into its own ecosystem. For example, Facebook's reporting focuses solely on Facebook impressions and clicks, and Google Analytics predominantly tracks on-site visits, often omitting critical information from other platforms like Snapchat or display advertising. The industry's journey towards a unified consumer experience has been disrupted. The Relative Approach In this new landscape, the best way to use multi-touch attribution is a more measured approach. Instead of seeking an absolute representation of the entire consumer journey, it's more effective to compare models and data sources. By analyzing relative comparisons, you can gain insights into how different marketing channels and touchpoints contribute to the customer journey. A practical example of the relative approach is comparing first-click attribution with last-click attribution. By examining the relative contributions of Facebook, Google Ads, and other channels in these different attribution models, you can uncover deeper insights consumer behavior. For instance, you might discover that many consumers initially interact with your brand through Facebook but only convert on a subsequent visit via search. In this way, you can gain a more nuanced understanding of the customer journey. Adapting to the Changing Landscape In today's landscape, the data you collect is often a sample of the overall consumer behavior. You're not observing the entire journey but rather a portion of it. Understanding this sampling approach will help you make more informed marketing decisions based on the data at your disposal. Conclusion Multi-touch attribution has shifted from an all-encompassing model to one that requires a more relative perspective. By comparing different attribution models and understanding the realities of data sampling, you can navigate the evolving marketing landscape more effectively. In a world where consumer behavior and marketing channels continue to change, adaptability and a willingness to learn and adjust are the keys to success. Learn more about advanced attribution techniques from our short courses. 

There’s no disputing it: businesses must harness the power of data-driven decision-making. One indispensable tool in a marketer’s toolkit is marketing mix modeling. In this post, we'll delve into what marketing mix modeling is, how it works, and how it empowers businesses to make more informed decisions. Understanding Marketing Mix Modeling At its core, marketing mix modeling is a regression model. While it can be as simple as a basic linear regression, more advanced models can be employed to correlate inputs to outputs. These models provide businesses with the ability to quantify the impact of both marketing and economic factors on their key performance indicators. Correlating Inputs to Outputs The primary goal of marketing mix modeling is to correlate these inputs with conversions, which can take the form of e-commerce sales, retail sales, app downloads, revenue, profit, or any other metrics that matter to a business. The model serves as a bridge between marketing activities and business outcomes, making it easier to evaluate the effectiveness of each component. Versatile Applications One of the key applications of marketing mix modeling is attribution analysis. Businesses can use the model to dissect the contribution of different factors to their sales. For example, it can reveal how much of the sales are attributable to TV advertising, Facebook campaigns, or specific seasonal trends. Any unexplained portion is often categorized as "base." Marketing mix modeling's versatility extends beyond just understanding media impact. Businesses can employ it for various purposes, such as analyzing competition, gauging the influence of seasonality, assessing economic conditions, or even examining how interest rates affect sales. This versatility makes it a powerful tool for data-driven decision-making. Model Constraints and Decision Support Once a marketing mix model is built, it's essential to remember that it has constraints. The model's capabilities are confined to the parameters of the inputs and outputs it was trained on. It is not a crystal ball, and asking it questions outside its bounds may lead to meaningless or misinterpreted results. Businesses should view the model as a decision support tool, which can provide valuable insights to shape strategies and guide marketing investments. Marketing mix modeling stands as a powerful tool in the modern marketing landscape. It helps businesses bridge the gap between marketing efforts and tangible outcomes, offering insights that can inform decision-making processes. By understanding the principles and nuances of this modeling technique, businesses can navigate the complex world of digital marketing with greater confidence and precision. Learn more about marketing mix modeling course at Msquared.

Creating a successful digital marketing campaign is a complex process that involves more than just running tests and analyzing results. It starts at the very beginning, with a strategic approach to setting up your campaigns. This thoughtful preparation can significantly impact the effectiveness of your digital marketing efforts. The Importance of Pre-Planning Before launching any campaign, consider the foundational elements of your strategy. These include your tactics, audience, objectives, and geography. Each of these factors plays a critical role in shaping your campaign's structure and potential success. When it comes to tactics, it's crucial to segregate different approaches into separate campaigns. For instance, retargeting and prospecting should never be mixed in the same campaign. These tactics yield different results and have distinct multiplier effects. Blending them makes it challenging to benchmark and analyze outcomes accurately. A recommended best practice is to exclude site visitors and existing customers from your prospecting tactics. This separation allows your prospecting to focus on acquiring new customers, leaving room for targeted campaigns aimed at site visitors and existing customers. Within each tactic, segmenting different audiences into their own campaigns is essential. This approach applies even to tactics that might seem similar, such as lookalike modeling and interest targeting. Separating these audiences allows for a clearer understanding of each group's performance and a more accurate application of multipliers. Facebook & Geographical Considerations On platforms like Facebook, having distinct objectives for each campaign is vital. For example, a lookalike conversion tactic should be tested differently from a lookalike traffic tactic, as they yield different multiplier results. Clear labeling and separation of these tactics are crucial for effective analysis. Geographically, it's advisable to run campaigns for different countries separately. While it might seem convenient to combine countries like the US and Canada, this approach complicates future geo-testing. If running multiple countries in a single account is necessary, ensure they are clearly and consistently labeled for ease of analysis. Consistency and Clarity in Campaign Management Consistency in campaign setup and labeling is crucial, especially when managing multiple campaigns across various geographies. Inconsistent labeling can lead to confusion and difficulty in identifying and analyzing specific campaigns. Consider the example of a client running campaigns in Australia. The campaigns were labeled inconsistently (Au, au S, Australia, international), making it difficult to sift through hundreds of campaigns to find specific ones. This inconsistency highlights the importance of a well-organized and clearly labeled campaign structure. In digital marketing, success often hinges on the clarity and strategic planning of your campaign setup. By paying close attention to the segregation of tactics, audience differentiation, clear objectives, and geographical considerations, marketers can create more effective and analyzable campaigns. Remember, the key to unlocking the potential of your digital marketing efforts lies in the details of your campaign's foundation.

In the ever-evolving world of digital marketing, businesses continuously seek efficient strategies to outperform their competition. One effective approach to achieve this involves a three-step process: Apply, Compare, and Optimize. This method offers a comprehensive way to enhance marketing performance using advanced attribution metrics. Step 1: Apply - Embracing Advanced attribution Metrics The first step in this transformative journey is to apply advanced metrics for more precise marketing analysis. Traditional last-touch metrics, while useful, often do not provide the complete picture of customer interactions. By employing advanced attribution Cost Per Acquisition (CPA) or Return on Ad Spend (ROAS), marketers can gain a more nuanced understanding of their campaigns' effectiveness. These metrics consider multiple touchpoints in a customer's journey, offering a more holistic view of their interaction with marketing tactics.Applying these advanced metrics requires a bit of media math. The idea is to take various multipliers and apply them to understand the advanced attribution CPA or ROAS. This mathematical approach allows for a deeper comprehension of how each marketing channel contributes to the overall success of the campaign. Step 2: Compare and Assess Against Goals Once these advanced metrics are in place, the next step is to compare these new results against set goals. This comparative analysis is crucial in determining the success of different tactics. If a campaign is outperforming the goals, it might be time to scale up the funding. Conversely, if a tactic is underperforming, reducing the budget or reevaluating the approach may be necessary.Comparing advanced Attribution results to goals enables marketers to make informed decisions about budget allocation. This process is similar to assessing last-touch metrics but provides a more comprehensive insight due to the advanced nature of the attribution models used. Step 3: Optimize - Fine-Tuning for Maximum Efficiency The final step is perhaps the most critical - optimization. This phase involves two key aspects: macro and micro optimization.Macro optimization focuses on the broader aspect of budget allocation across various platforms. It’s about understanding where to increase investment and where to cut back to maximize returns. This might involve reallocating budgets from underperforming channels to those delivering better results.Even if a tactic is meeting its goals, there’s always room for improvement. Micro optimization delves into the finer details of each tactic, identifying areas that can be further enhanced to boost performance. This could mean tweaking ad copy, adjusting target demographics, or experimenting with different content formats. The Role of External Guidance Companies often rely on external agencies or consultants for macro optimization recommendations, such as where to allocate or remove budget. However, the micro optimization often remains an area less explored by these external entities. Here, in-house teams can play a significant role. By understanding the nuances of micro optimization, they can work closely with agencies to ensure that every aspect of a campaign is fine-tuned for peak performance.The journey doesn't end with optimization. The digital marketing landscape is dynamic, and continuous learning and adaptation are key. Marketers should always be on the lookout for new tactics, technologies, and strategies to stay ahead in the game.By adopting a structured approach of applying, comparing, and optimizing marketing strategies, businesses can significantly enhance their digital marketing efforts. This methodology not only improves the efficiency of current campaigns but also opens up doors for future investment and growth. Embracing both macro and micro optimization ensures that every dollar spent is working towards achieving the best possible results. Ultimately, this approach is about being proactive, informed, and adaptable in the fast-paced world of digital marketing.

In digital marketing, data is king. And with multi-touch Attribution (MTA), marketers have a powerful tool at their disposal to make informed decisions and optimize their campaigns. In this three-step guide, we will explore the nuances of advanced Attribution metrics and how they can revolutionize your approach to digital marketing. Step 1: Implementing Advanced Attribution Metrics Creating a comprehensive dashboard is the first step in harnessing the potential of advanced attribution metrics. Your dashboard should be capable of consolidating data from various platforms, including Facebook, Google Ads, and any other platforms heavily represented in your marketing mix.  This dashboard will provide you with insights into your ad spend, total orders, and total revenue, allowing you a clear overview of your marketing performance. To take full advantage of advanced attribution metrics, you'll need to introduce some additional metrics to your dashboard. These new metrics will mirror the ones you're using for last-touch attribution, including advanced attributed orders, advanced attributed revenue, and advanced attributed ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) or CPA (Cost Per Acquisition). These metrics will paint a more complete picture of your campaign's effectiveness. As an example, consider a hypothetical Facebook prospecting campaign. In this scenario, you've achieved a self-reported ROAS of 6.2. However, this metric is based on Facebook's view of your campaign's performance, limited to its own ecosystem. It doesn't account for cross-channel interactions or customer behavior beyond Facebook. This is where advanced attribution comes into play. To calculate advanced attribution ROAS, you'll apply a multiplier. If your self-reported ROAS from Facebook is 6.2 and your multiplier is 72%, you'll get a new ROAS of 4.5. This revised metric offers a more accurate reflection of your campaign's actual performance across various touchpoints. Step 2: Comparing and Decision-Making with Advanced Attribution Metrics The next step is to compare your newly calculated advanced attribution metrics to your predefined goals. Setting these goals can be a complex process and may vary from brand to brand. However, an ROAS of $1.50 is generally considered the break-even point in many industries, while ROAS values between $2 and $3 are typically profitable. In our example, the brand had initially set a goal ROAS of 3.5 based on last-touch metrics. However, advanced attribution metrics led them to adjust their goals, providing a more accurate and ambitious target. This flexibility in goal-setting opens doors for more accurate budget allocation, ensuring that the brand invests where it truly matters. By comparing advanced attribution ROAS to the updated goal ROAS, marketers can make more informed decisions. If the results align with or surpass the goal, there may be an opportunity to scale up the campaign. If the results fall short, optimization or budget reallocation may be in order. For non-brand search campaigns, the introduction of advanced attribution can have a profound impact. While last-touch metrics might suggest budget reduction, advanced attribution might reveal untapped potential, encouraging brands to maintain or even expand their efforts. Step 3: Dive into the Nitty-Gritty of Optimization Once you've set the stage with your advanced attribution metrics and made data-informed decisions, it's time for the nitty-gritty of optimization. Micro and macro optimization both will come into play. Micro Optimization: Even if your campaign is performing close to your goal, there's always room for improvement. Micro optimization involves fine-tuning your tactics at a granular level to achieve even better results. Don't settle for meeting your goals; strive to surpass them and continue optimizing. Macro Optimization: The larger scale of macro optimization entails reallocating budgets between platforms and channels. Measurement solution providers and agencies can offer guidance here. They might suggest moving a certain amount from one channel to another or making strategic changes based on your advanced attribution metrics. Embracing advanced attribution metrics revolutionizes the way you approach digital marketing. It offers a more comprehensive view of your campaign's performance, allows for dynamic goal-setting, and enables you to make data-informed decisions. By diving deeper into optimization, you can unlock the full potential of your digital marketing efforts and stay ahead in the competitive landscape. Learn Next Step : When You Have Attribution multipliers: what’s next?

Within digital marketing, non-brand search optimization is a territory of critical importance for many businesses. The ability to master this domain can make the difference between revenue growth and decline. In this post, we’ll do a deep dive into the intricacies of non-brand search optimization, exploring the techniques and strategies that are essential for success in today's competitive landscape.  The Importance of Diversification Every brand that starts a deep assessment of their marketing portfolio eventually comes to a a critical realization - the significance of diversification. We've witnessed numerous brands heavily investing in brand search and site retargeting based on inflated last-touch metrics, while often neglecting the untapped potential of non-brand search. This myopic approach creates a vicious cycle, wearing out your audience and stifling your business's growth. When businesses find their total revenue steadily declining, it becomes apparent that the overemphasis on retargeting has taken a toll. The question is, how can they harness the power of non-brand search to reverse the trend? Search optimization stands apart from social and display tactics. While there are similarities between these branches of digital marketing, search optimization requires a different skill set and a distinct approach. It's a world of its own, often necessitating a separate team dedicated to fine-tuning your search campaigns. However, at the same time, a shift is occurring in the industry. Brands increasingly seek agencies that can provide search, social, and display optimization under one roof, or even one individual capable of mastering all three. The marketing landscape is evolving, and adaptability is the key. The Unique Nature of Search Optimization One of the cornerstones of search optimization is refining your keyword list. This list comprises the words and phrases you bid on for non-brand campaigns. However, it's not a one-and-done task. The journey of search optimization requires a continuous process of analyzing performance, eliminating underperforming keywords, and bidding higher on the strong performers. Tools and platforms provided by Google and other platforms can help in this journey. It's about sculpting your keyword arsenal, ensuring that it evolves with your campaign's goals. Bidding strategies are at the heart of search optimization. Knowing how much to bid for specific keywords is a delicate dance. Google offers the option to set a maximum cost per click (CPC) bid to provide some control over expenses. It's like placing guardrails on your campaign's journey to maintain efficiency while chasing success. Your search ad copy is your digital storefront, and its appearance can dramatically affect performance. Experimentation is the name of the game, as ad copy and format optimization can influence click-through rates and conversions. Do you go for a concise ad or a more extensive one? Do you highlight one product or provide links to various products? Is mentioning the price beneficial, or does it work against you? These are all elements that require testing and refinement. The journey through search optimization doesn't stop at the ad itself. Once you've successfully brought a user to your landing page, you must ensure they can effortlessly navigate to their desired product and throughout your site. The landing page's layout and the path to conversion are paramount. Even if you excel at driving traffic to your site, a complicated or inefficient landing page can lead to missed opportunities. In search optimization, this optimization step is particularly critical, as it's the closest connection to site conversion. Putting It All Together The world of non-brand search optimization is a dynamic exploration of the art and science of digital marketing as brands look to unlock the potential of search and unearth new ways to reach their audiences. Each element is essential in the journey towards success - from refining keywords to crafting the perfect ad copy, setting the right bid, and optimizing landing pages. These seemingly minute optimizations collectively pave the path to a sustainable, growing business. Mastering search optimization is about more than achieving a set ROAS goal. It's about sustaining and justifying investments, creating the space for diversification and the discovery of new audiences. This is the process that keeps businesses thriving. With the right team and the right strategy, businesses can find themselves on the path to making decisions that ensure growth and prosperity. With the insights shared here, you're better equipped to embark on your journey through the complex world of non-brand search optimization. Remember, every click, every bid, every keyword, and every landing page improvement can make a significant difference on your path to digital marketing success. Join Our Short Course Advanced Attribution Foundation Course

In marketing, scaling up your efforts, especially within Facebook Prospecting, can be a pivotal move toward achieving your marketing growth goals.. Explore effective strategies and optimization insights to succeed in this evolving landscape.

Classroom MMM Exercise 1: Media Only Model Decoding the Impact of Media on Sales: A Classroom Exercise In a recent classroom exercise, we stripped down the complex world of marketing mix modeling to its basics. The task was to build a model using only media spending and intercept—no frills like seasonality, trend, or holidays. Just the raw influence of media channels on sales. The Bare-Bones Model Imagine you’re in a kitchen trying to figure out which ingredients affect your soup's flavor the most, but you can only taste the broth and the spices, not the salt or the garlic. That’s what we did with this model. We discovered that one mysterious lead-based variable—let’s call it the 'secret spice'—drove a whopping 53% of the company's sales. Facebook was a strong contender too, bringing in 33.4%, while Google Search and Snapchat added 8% and 4.9% to the flavor, respectively. Predictions vs. Reality The students then put their model to the test, comparing its predictions against actual sales. It's like predicting how many guests will enjoy the soup at a party. The model was pretty good, but not perfect, showing a 35% error rate with the training data (the initial taste test) and a more impressive 6% with the test data (the actual party). Learning from the Numbers This exercise wasn't just about crunching numbers; it was a real-life lesson in understanding the weight of different marketing channels on sales. By simplifying the model, students could clearly see the direct impact of each media component. It’s like understanding which ingredients stand out the most when you first learn to cook. The Classroom Takeaway The takeaway from this exercise is clear: even without the bells and whistles of external factors, media spending plays a significant role in driving sales. This classroom experiment sheds light on the fundamental elements of marketing influence, providing a baseline understanding before diving into more complex models. It’s a first step in the journey from marketing mix theory to practical, actionable insights. Classroom MMM Exercise 2: Addition Of Exogenous Variables Enhancing Marketing Models with Exogenous Variables In the dynamic field of marketing analytics, the addition of exogenous variables into models can significantly improve the accuracy of our predictions and insights. A recent analysis demonstrates how incorporating these variables reshapes our understanding of various marketing components, like social media platforms, and their impact on sales. The Role of Exogenous Variables Exogenous variables are external factors that can influence the outcome of a model but are not influenced by the model itself. In this specific case, variables such as trends, seasonality, and holidays were introduced into the marketing mix model. Their inclusion provides a more comprehensive view of the factors affecting sales, beyond the immediate scope of marketing channels. Shifting Credit Where Credit is Due Initially, platforms like Facebook were credited with a substantial impact on sales. However, with the introduction of exogenous variables, the analysis painted a different picture. The trend emerged as a more significant factor, accounting for 5.8% of sales impact, overshadowing the previously assumed influence of Facebook. Seasonality, contrary to expectations, was not a major factor, and the influence of holidays was minimal, at about 0.3%. Refining Predictions and Understanding The integration of these variables led to a notable improvement in the model's predictive accuracy. The disparity between actual sales and model predictions reduced, indicating a tighter, more accurate model. This was quantified by an increase in the R-squared value, signifying that a higher percentage of variation in actual sales was now being explained by the model. The Importance of Exogenous Variables This exercise highlights the importance of considering external factors in marketing analytics. By accounting for elements like market trends and seasonal variations, marketers can develop a more nuanced understanding of what truly drives sales. This approach allows for a more strategic allocation of marketing resources, ensuring that credit is given to the most impactful factors. As this case study shows, such enhancements can lead to more precise predictions and better-informed marketing strategies, ultimately driving more effective and efficient marketing campaigns. Classroom MMM Exercise 3: Payman's View On The Trend / Seasonality Model The Impact of Seasonality in Marketing Models In the intricate world of marketing analytics, understanding the influence of seasonality on sales is crucial. A recent discussion highlighted the pitfalls of excluding seasonality from marketing models and how it can skew our perception of marketing effectiveness. Misattributing Sales Increases Often, marketers observe a rise in sales and attribute it directly to their marketing efforts. However, this can be misleading, especially if the model overlooks seasonality. Historical data frequently shows that during peak demand periods, marketing spend increases. Without accounting for seasonality, this increased spend might incorrectly be seen as the primary driver of sales growth. The Seasonality Proxy In many cases, the surge in marketing investment during high-demand seasons acts as a proxy for seasonality. Without explicitly modeling this factor, the rise in sales could be mistakenly credited to marketing strategies, when in fact, it's more closely tied to seasonal trends. Balancing Underestimation and Overestimation The challenge lies in accurately measuring the effect of marketing without underestimating or overestimating its impact. Ignoring seasonality can lead to an overvaluation of marketing efforts, while factoring it in might reveal a more nuanced view of how marketing contributes to sales. The Risk of Biases Neglecting crucial inputs like seasonality in a marketing model can introduce significant biases. These biases can distort the true effectiveness of marketing strategies, leading to misguided decisions and strategies based on incomplete data. Classroom MMM Exercise 4: Payman's View On The Basic Media Only Model In the complex world of marketing and brand building, capturing the long-term effects of media efforts poses a unique challenge, especially when relying solely on a traditional media mix model. This model, typically designed to measure the direct response from media stimulation to consumer action, often struggles to track the extended impact of marketing efforts on brand building and customer engagement. The Limitation of Traditional Models Traditional media mix models are adept at capturing immediate responses, such as a direct purchase following a marketing campaign. However, they fall short in measuring the prolonged effects, like enhanced brand awareness or sustained customer engagement, which are crucial in long-term brand building strategies. Breaking Down the Funnel One effective approach to address this challenge is to deconstruct the marketing funnel into smaller, more manageable sections. This method involves identifying specific stages in the customer journey, such as brand awareness or website engagement, and modeling them individually. By focusing on these distinct phases, it becomes easier to measure and understand the incremental impacts of media efforts. Implementing Cascaded Modeling The concept of a cascaded model funnel is particularly useful in this context. By breaking down the funnel and modeling each section separately, delays and long-term effects can be isolated and analyzed more effectively. This approach allows for a more granular understanding of how each stage of the customer journey contributes to the overall marketing objectives. Utilizing Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) Employing KPIs or other measures as leading indicators is crucial in this segmented approach. These indicators can provide early insights into the effectiveness of various marketing initiatives in raising brand awareness or improving customer engagement, well before they translate into direct sales or conversions.

Core Objectives of an MMM Model - Estimation and Optimization Measuring Marketing Success MMM is all about measurement. By looking back at past campaigns, it helps us pinpoint what worked and what didn't. It’s akin to a post-game analysis; dissecting plays to understand which strategies led to a touchdown and which ones ended in a fumble. This is how we calculate the true ROI, or return on investment, which, let’s be honest, can be as complex as a Rubik's cube. Predicting Future Performance Once we've got measurement sorted, the next step is prediction. It's like looking into a crystal ball, but instead of vague prophecies, we're using hard data to foresee how our next campaign will perform. Will Google give us more bang for our buck, or is it time to dance with TikTok? MMM doesn't need to read the stars to predict the future; it uses solid, past data to make educated guesses. The Art of Optimization With predictions in hand, it's time to play the optimization game. Imagine you’re a coach deciding where to allocate your star players. If one channel is scoring high ROI consistently, that’s where you want your marketing dollars playing offense. It’s not just about picking the winning team though; we have to consider the law of diminishing returns and the synergy between channels. The Bottom Line So, MMM is our marketing MVP, tackling the toughest challenges in advertising by measuring, predicting, and optimizing our marketing efforts. It tells us where to place our bets and fold our cards in the high-stakes game of marketing. Ready to place your bets where the returns are best? That's what MMM is here to help with. Challenges in MMM - Missing variables biases Modeling seasonality in sales data. The Seasonality Effect: Getting Your Marketing Model Right Have you ever given your marketing a high five for a sales spike, only to realize it was just the holiday rush? That's where the importance of modeling seasonality in marketing comes in. It's like giving credit where credit's due and making sure your marketing isn't taking a bow for Mother Nature's work. Why Seasonality Can't Take a Back Seat Picture this: it's the festive season, and sales are soaring. You're pouring more into marketing because, well, 'tis the season. But if your model doesn't account for seasonality, you might end up thinking it's all your marketing's magic. The truth? Those sales might have spiked even without that extra ad spend. It's a classic case of mistaken identity, and your model's the detective getting it wrong. Balancing the Marketing Scale The trick is to hit that sweet spot—where you’re not underselling your marketing efforts or giving them too much credit. Think of it like seasoning a dish; too little and it's bland, too much and it's overwhelming. You want just the right amount to bring out the best flavor. In marketing, that flavor is the true impact of your efforts, and you want it just right. Steering Clear of Bias Inputs in your model are like ingredients in a recipe—pick the wrong ones, and the whole dish is off. If you’re not careful, biases sneak in, and suddenly, your output is serving you illusions rather than insights. It's all about being meticulous with what goes into your marketing mix, ensuring every variable is there for a reason. The Takeaway In the world of marketing analytics, recognizing the impact of seasonality is crucial. It's about understanding the full picture and giving credit to your marketing strategies for their genuine impact, not just the seasonal trends. Keep your models in check, and your marketing will be all the better for it. Cascaded MMM - An approach to measuring long-term effects Measuring long-term effects in marketing funnels The Long Game in Media Mix Modeling Building a brand is like nurturing a garden – it takes time, patience, and the right conditions to flourish. When it comes to media mix modeling (MMM), the challenge is capturing the effects of long-lasting media and sales efforts on brand growth. If you're relying on a single MMM to track from the initial ad exposure to the final purchase, you might miss out on the whole story. Breaking Down the Customer Journey The key is to not treat the customer journey as a sprint but as a marathon with different legs. Instead of one end-to-end model, consider breaking down the funnel into bite-sized pieces. It's like tracking an athlete’s performance across different stages of a race – each part tells you something valuable about their overall stamina and strategy. From Awareness to Action Start with brand awareness. Do you know what's lifting your brand's profile? What about engagement metrics like website interactions? By modeling these sections separately, you can get a clearer picture of what's happening at each stage. This approach is like having checkpoints in a race, allowing you to assess progress more frequently and adjust your strategy as needed. Cascading to Success Once you have these segmented insights, you can link them together in a cascaded model funnel. This helps to map out the delayed effects of your marketing efforts more accurately. Imagine linking chains together – each one represents a different stage of the customer's journey, and when connected, they form a complete picture. Embracing Complexity Building a MMM that captures the long-term effects is no walk in the park. It's a complex puzzle that requires a thoughtful approach. But by segmenting the customer journey and using a cascaded model, you can better measure and understand the enduring impact of your brand-building efforts. The Bottom Line In the end, the goal is to create a MMM that can go the distance, tracking the nuances of brand-building over time. By acknowledging the complexity and adopting a segmented approach, you stand a better chance of capturing those elusive long-term effects and nurturing your brand's growth to full bloom.