Closing the Gap: How Brand Teams Can Finally Prove ROI

“Just because the impact of brand marketing isn’t immediate doesn’t mean it’s immeasurable.”

Start Here: Marketing Needs an Accounting Mindset

Why modern marketing mix models are brand marketers’ secret weapon. Before diving into modeling, brand teams need a structured way to understand how marketing contributes to business outcomes. That’s where a marketing accounting mindset comes in—reframing media investments as assets, not just expenses.

Rather than splitting marketing into “brand” vs. “performance,” this framework encourages teams to:

• Align spend with funnel stages (awareness, consideration, conversion)
• Track upper-funnel KPIs like:
  • Engaged sessions
  • Branded SEO growth
  • Organic search traffic
  • View-through conversions
    
• Structure budgets based on investment horizon—short-term activation vs. long-term equity building

This accounting logic sets up advanced modeling to do what it does best: quantify lagged, layered impact across channels and time.

“The most effective brand marketing isn’t loud—it’s layered, long-term, and lagging.”

Why Traditional Attribution Fails Brand Marketers

Upper-funnel tactics like TV, podcast, influencer, or sponsorships often don’t convert immediately. This creates tension when leadership expects every dollar to show direct ROI.

Conventional tools like last-click attribution or basic lift tests fall short.

They ignore:

• Time lags in customer behavior
• Synergy between upper-funnel and bottom-funnel tactics
• Multi-region or multi-product effects
  

That’s where advanced modeling—especially Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM)—comes in.

A Modern Modeling Stack for Brand Leaders

• Auto-Regressive Modeling
  Accounts for lagged effects from brand media—TV, influencer, etc.—so ROI can be captured beyond the first week.
  
  
• Hierarchical Modeling
  Disentangles effects by channel, region, or KPI. This is critical when modeling multiple upper-funnel metrics like Brand SEO, Engaged Sessions, or Top-of-Funnel Lead Quality alongside downstream conversions.
  
  
• Bayesian Priors
  Incorporates business rules and media logic (e.g., “TV has a delayed effect”) to ground the model in reality and avoid noise.
  
  
• Scenario Testing
  Allows brand teams to simulate what-if planning:
  • What if we increase podcast spend by 20%?
  • What happens if TV overlaps with retail?
    
    
• HVA (High-Value Action) Modeling
  Used to track upstream actions—newsletter signups, product views, social saves—that are correlated with downstream sales. These are critical for modern MMM.

“We didn’t just justify the sponsorship—we optimized the timing and messaging for even better lift.”

Mary Maijer CMO, PowerHeal

Case Study: PowerHeal’s Bold Sponsorship Play

When wellness brand PowerHeal evaluated a major sponsorship opportunity, they needed proof that the investment would pay off. Using advanced MMM techniques:

• HVAs like branded search and site engagement were tracked as early signals
• Auto-regressive lags revealed ROI peaking in Weeks 3–5 post-exposure
• Hierarchical models captured variation by region and media type

The result? Confidence to move forward—and the campaign exceeded ROI targets within one quarter.

Chart 1 – Marketing Impact Curve

Line chart showing lagging impact of TV vs. immediate spike from performance media (search), with cumulative lift over 6–8 weeks.

Chart 2 – Multi-Channel Impact Stagger

Your Brand Modeling Playbook

You don’t need to build a model in-house—but you do need to frame the right questions.

1. Map Your Media
Audit all brand spend: linear/CTV, podcast, influencer, sponsorship, content. Include owned media and reach metrics.

2. Define Smart KPIs
Go beyond sales:

• Brand search volume
• SEO visibility
• Engaged site sessions
• HVAs by media channel

3. Structure Your Dataset
Inputs:

• Weekly spend
• Media delivery (GRPs, impressions)
• Promotional activity
• External variables (seasonality, competitors)

4. Model Lag Intentionally
Use auto-regressive logic to quantify long-term brand lift—not just week-1 conversions.

5. Simulate Strategy
Test how layering channels (e.g. TV + influencer) improves ROI vs. siloed spend.

6. Get Executive Buy-In
Model outputs should be translated into visuals and business cases, not just statistical reports.

“Brand vs. performance is a false choice. Great marketers model both—and unify them.”

Final Word: Brand Building, Modeled Right

Modern marketing is more measurable than ever. With a financial framework to define success and advanced tools to model long-term value, brand marketers can operate with clarity, confidence, and control.

When you model brand right, you don’t just measure marketing—you multiply its impact.

Ready to prove brand ROI with confidence?

Let’s build your model. → Contact MSquared